This paper constitutes a report based on data available at Table 1, Table 2, and Table 3; the figures from these tables have been developed to reflect usage of Renewable Energy (RE) electricity as the optimal source for sustaining power demand in Saudi Arabia. The scenario supposes that Concentrated Solar Energy (CSP) technology has a more effective potential for sustainability the kingdoms electricity at the least cost.
The report also reflects on RE economics where the instance of KA-Care has been revised to examine the model for electric energy demand (and factors influencing the demand; such as efficiency gains and population), as well as the supply model (that has been developed to reflect the portfolio of the basic energy success). Supply is assumed to meet demand for the benefit of power balances that stands at a firm capacity of peakload x 125%.
The table shows a steady increment in consumption at the various levels whereas the transport sector is envisaged not to use solar energy, however. The increment in demand at the other sectors reflects predicted population and economic increases.
The Functionality of Renewable Energy: Concentrated Solar Energy (CSP) in Focus
It is usual that several people limit solar energy to the use of photovoltaic panels which are commonly located on rooftops and power very limited facilities (Zalba 253). The reason for this is based on the fact that usage of the panels or similar devices for acquiring electric energy has been more common, and perhaps is at very cheap costs. Solar energy however has wider applications, including CSP.
Figure 1 shows a Parabolic Trough System as a CSP unit; most of these units are usually quite large installations which cover several acres and constitute reflective mirrors as collecting units which convey sun rays based on their orientation (Iorfa 56; Mills 23). Performance effectiveness is largely dependent on amount of temperature and design of the trough (Mills 283).
Parabolic Trough System Schematic Diagram
Figure 1. Parabolic Trough System Schematic Diagram
The receiving units comprises of a heat absorbing unit (this is otherwise known as the heat transfer fluid) that could be transferred to a storage device some place away. The workability of CSP is also achieved through Power Tower and Dish Engine systems as shown in Figure 2 and Figure 3.
Power Tower Schematic DiagramDish/engine System Schematic Diagram
Figure 2: (A) Power Tower Schematic Diagram (B) Dish/engine System Schematic Diagram
Although, these systems vary structurally from one another, the general working principles are similar which involve the conversion of energy from the sun the electric energy, and are quite economical in terms of environmental friendly, management and maintenance. It is this energy systems that has been propose for usage in Saudi Arabia as show in Table 1 above.
Rationale for Using CSP as an Electric Energy Alternative in Saudi Arabia
The tendency of CSP to generate very minimal greenhouse-gas emissions makes it highly adoptable anywhere in the world especially in the present society where there is a very high demand for safe energy as an alternative to mitigation of climatic changes.
These energy alternatives are flexible in terms of enhanced security, and have an inherent capacity to store heat energy for short periods of time for later conversion to electricity (Forsberg et al. 141).
In combination with thermal storage devices, concentrated solar energy could be able to generate electricity continually even with the absence of visible light as the devices and systems are developed with the potential of backing up power from fuel combustions.
As an edge, CSP are highly reliable in dispatching to grids when there is the need for whereas the system offers a very effective technology for Saudi Arabia, it also promises a cleaner, safer, more reliable, and even cheaper energy alternative.
Interestingly, it has been reported that Saudi Arabia has indicated a strong political will towards the adaptation renewable energy and could lead exploding the sector within the Mid-East and North Africa [MENA] (DLR 9). This has been evident as there is an onward development of an energy plant by the government through SolFocus presently (DLR 32).
The kingdom has the desire of diversifying the economy and improving technology, which also explains why the need for a safer and indeed more economical friendly energy is a welcome alternative. However, (Iorfa 45) noted that the kingdom has not developed an adequate policy to maximize renewable energy, particularly CSP.
Challenges of Developing CSP in Saudi Arabia Presently
One the most recurrent issue with Saudi Arabias potential to effectively maximize the usage of CSP has been consistently attributed to the lack of a committed framework- Iorfa (56) notes that there is a development to structure a framework to this effect, however.
The so desired framework would take care of technical issues such as taking care or at least controlling the highly dusty nature of the environment which is always caused by sand storms.
The region also has deficit of water sources which could be used for cooling systems. Table 2 shows energy system stability for the year 2010; this includes the economic potential, the instalment capacity, and the capacity credit where the various alternatives of renewable energy are considered.
In the Table, the Potential for adopting CSP in the Kingdom for the year 2010 rated 124,560 TWh and has a capacity credit of 90% (the highest achieved in any energy sector). These figures reflect a perspective future for energy supply as also shown in the following tables for year 2020, 2030, 2040, and 2050.
2020 2030
SYSTEM STABILITY Installed capacity (MW) Capacity credit (%) Firm capacity (MW) Installed capacity (MW) Capacity credit (%) Firm capacity (MW)
Renewables in Total 5,478 3,748 25,905 20,678
Photovoltaic 913 0% 0 1,826 0% 0
CSP 3,672 90% 3,305 21,098 90% 18,988
Wind 457 15% 68 1,370 20% 274
Geothermal 254 90% 228 1,268 90% 1,142
Biomass 183 80% 146 342 80% 274
Gas sources 62,859 90% 56,573 70,942 90% 63,848
Oil sources 22,601 90% 20,341 22,601 90% 20,341
Nuclear 1,000 90% 900 3,000 90% 2,700
Overall Capacity 91,938 81,561 122,448 107,567
Peak Load (MW) 65,249 86,053
Peak Load + 25% Spare Capacity (MW) 81,561 107,567
Balance 0 0
Table 3. Energy system stability for the year 2020 -2030
2040 2050
SYSTEM STABILITY Installed capacity (MW) Capacity credit (%) Firm capacity (MW) Installed capacity (MW) Capacity credit (%) Firm capacity (MW)
Renewables in Total 60,325 50,400 91,258 76,037
Photovoltaic 2,740 0% 0 3,653 0% 0
CSP 52,195 90% 46,975 78,549 90% 70,694
Wind 2,283 30% 685 4,566 30% 1,370
Geothermal 2,537 90% 2,283 3,805 90% 3,425
Biomass 571 80% 457 685 80% 548
Gas sources 78,994 90% 71,094 89,572 90% 80,614
Oil sources 15,000 90% 13,500 15,000 90% 13,500
Nuclear 3,000 90% 2,700 3,000 90% 2,700
Overall Capacity 157,319 137,694 198,830 172,851
Peak Load (MW) 110,155 138,281
Peak Load + 25% Spare Capacity (MW) 137,694 172,851
Balance 0 0
Table 4. Energy system stability for the year 2040 -2050
Table 5 shows system balances of the various alternatives to energy for the kingdom in the year 2010 with key focus on economic potentials, installation capacity, capacity factor, and the general production.
2010
SYSTEM BALANCE Economic potential (TWh) Installed capacity (MW) Capacity factor (%) Production (TWh)
Renewables in Total 124,675 0 0.0
Photovoltaic 14 0 25% 0.0
CSP 124,560 0 80% 0.0
Wind 20 0 25% 0.0
Geothermal 71 0 90% 0.0
Biomass 10 0 50% 0.0
Gas sources 32,663 38% 109
Oil sources 22,601 60% 119
Nuclear 0 90% 0
Overall Production 55,264 228
Demand (TWh) 211
Balance 17
Renewables share (%) 0.0%
Renewables share (%) production
Table 5. System balances of the various alternatives to energy for the kingdom in the year 2010
Again this table identifies the leading benefit of adopting CSP for power generation. Table 6 and Table 7 show the system balances for subsequent years from 2020 to 2050.
2020 2030
SYSTEM BALANCE Installed capacity (MW) Capacity factor (%) Production (TWh) Installed capacity (MW) Capacity factor (%) Production (TWh)
Photovoltaic 5,478 31.5 25,905 166.4
CSP 913 25% 2.0 1,826 25% 4.0
Wind 3,672 80% 25.7 21,098 80% 147.9
Geothermal 457 25% 1.0 1,370 25% 3.0
Biomass 254 90% 2.0 1,268 90% 10.0
Gas sources 183 50% 0.8 342 50% 1.5
Oil sources 62,859 36% 198 70,942 28% 176
Nuclear 22,601 39% 78 22,601 25% 49
Overall Production 1,000 90% 8 3,000 90% 24
Demand (TWh) 91,938 315 122,448 416
Balance 315 416
0 0
Renewables share (%) 10.0% 40.0%
Renewables share (%) production 10.0% 40.0%
Table 6. System balances for 2020- 2030, and Table 7. Balances for 2040- 2050
2040 2050
SYSTEM BALANCE Installed capacity (MW) Capacity factor (%) Production (TWh) Installed capacity (MW) Capacity factor (%) Production (TWh)
Photovoltaic 60,325 399.3 91,258 601.5
CSP 2,740 25% 6.0 3,653 25% 8.0
Wind 52,195 80% 365.8 78,549 80% 550.5
Geothermal 2,283 25% 5.0 4,566 25% 10.0
Biomass 2,537 90% 20.0 3,805 90% 30.0
Gas sources 571 50% 2.5 685 50% 3.0
Oil sources 78,994 25% 173 89,572 25% 196
Nuclear 15,000 25% 33 15,000 25% 33
Overall production 3,000 90% 24 3,000 90% 24
Demand (TWh) 157,319 629 198,830 854
Balance 532 668
96 186
Renewables share (%) 75.0% 90.0%
Renewables share (%) production 63.5% 70.4%
Efficiency of the CSP
From Figure 5, 6 and 7 show the balances of usage of energy in Saudi Arabia over a period of four decades. During this period, CSP was by far the most continually efficient energy alternative and returned and equilibrium in quantity produced against the quantity of energy that is/would be consumed.
The general principle for the functionality of the CSP is the conversion of solar radiations to heat through the use of a receiving system with an efficiency of Receiver. The heat is afterwards transformed to work which constitutes Carnot efficiency, Carnot, and the solar radiations would provide a temperature of TH thereby causing a temperature of T to be absorbed. By mathematical implication therefore:
= Receiver * Carnot
Carnot is given as 1 T0 / TH, and Receiver = (Qabsorbed Qlost) / Qsolar.
Qabsorbed, Qsolar, and Qlost are the fluxes which would be absorbed by the system, the incoming flux from the sun, and the flux which would be lost in the process. It is beyond the scope of this paper however to emphasize the scientific details involved with the process and it could therefore be assumed that losses in flux are based on radiation but further derivatives maybe produced by application of Boltzmanns law.
The Cost involved with CSP installations in Saudi Arabia
In the year 2009, the cost for developing a CSP control unit with an output of a watt was quoted to be between two to four dollars; this excludes the energy source as it is always taped free from the sun.
Based on these figures, generating a 250MW CSP work unit may cost between six hundred to a thousand million dollars [or between $0.12 to $0.18/ kwh] (TEEJ). With growing investor interest in CSP, such google, there is the tendency that in 2012, the cost for generating CSP electricity in Saudi Arabia, and indeed worldwide would reduce reasonably.
Future of CSP
The following projections have been made for energy utilization in Saudi Arabia from 2020 to 2050 as shown in Table 8, Table 9, Table 10, Table 11, Table 12 and Table 13.
SAUDI ARABIA
2007 2008 2009
Electric power consumption (TWh) 174.8 186.5 199.1
Index (%) 6.7% 6.8%
Peak Load (MW) 34,953 38,000 41,200
Index (%) 8.7% 8.4%
Table 8. Projections for energy utilization in Saudi Arabia from 2007 to 2009 (ECRA,)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Electric power consumption (TWh) 210.5 222.6 235.4 248.9 258.0 267.5 277.4 287.5
Index (%) 5.7% 5.7% 5.7% 5.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7%
Peak Load (MW) 43,564 46,063 48,706 51,501 53,393 55,354 57,387 59,496
Index (%) 5.7% 5.7% 5.7% 5.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7%
Table 9. Projections for energy utilization in Saudi Arabia from 2010 to 2017
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Electric power consumption (TWh) 298.1 306.6 315.3 324.3 333.6 343.1 352.9 362.9 373.3
Index (%) 3.7% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9%
Peak Load (MW) 61,681 63,440 65,249 67,110 69,024 70,992 73,017 75,099 77,240
Index (%) 3.7% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9%
Table 10. Projections for energy utilization in Saudi Arabia from 2018 to 2026
2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036
Electric power consumption (TWh) 383.9 394.3 405.0 415.9 426.3 436.9 447.9 459.1 470.5 482.3
Index (%) 2.9% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%
Peak Load (MW) 79,443 81,588 83,791 86,053 88,205 90,410 92,670 94,987 97,361 99,795
Index (%) 2.9% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%
Table 11. Projections for energy utilization in Saudi Arabia from 2027 to 2036
2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045
Electric power consumption (TWh) 494.4 506.7 519.4 532.4 544.6 557.1 570.0 583.1 596.5
Index (%) 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3%
Peak Load (MW) 102,290 104,848 107,469 110,155 112,689 115,281 117,932 120,645 123,420
Index (%) 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3%
Table 12. Projections for energy utilization in Saudi Arabia from 2037 to 2045
2046 2047 2048 2049 2050
Electric power consumption (TWh) 610.2 624.2 638.6 653.3 668.3
Index (%) 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3%
Peak Load (MW) 126,258 129,162 132,133 135,172 138,281
Index (%) 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3%
Table 13. Projections for energy utilization in Saudi Arabia from 2046 to 2050
These statistics are relevant as they express a growing demand for energy in the kingdom and suggest quantity of energy to be made available at various years up to the year 2050. Numerous studies have been conducted to ascertain the potentials of having a sustained CSP globally up to 2050 and results show that at least 25% of the energy used throughout the world by the year 2050 would be CSP.
This is similar to the valued presented in the tables above. Increased investment in the sector would be 92.50 billion euros as against the present 2.. Table 14 below show stipulated CSP growth as noted by Iorfa (12):
Time Annual
Investment Cumulative
Capacity
2015 21 billion euros a year 420 megawatts
2050 174 billion euros a year 1500 gigawatts
Table 14. Stipulated global CSP growth from 2015 to 2015 (Iorfa 12).
The significance of these indications is an overwhelming reducing in the price of generating CSP electricity by the year 2050, as there is a continual increment of investor interest in the sector as well an advancing application of technology to the sector.
At the moment, the European Union is considering the development of the sector by committing $774.5 billion for the networking of CSP plants especially in NEMA and other regions around the Sahara for the facilitation of creation of a new carbon-free network linking Europe, the Middle East and North Africa (Iorfa 14). This has been supported majorly by investors from Germany.
Advantages of CSP in Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia, like any other country within the MENA region is endowed with an amazing amount of sunlight supply and make available the most friend CSP environments anywhere in the world as reflected in the instance of KA-Care (K.A.CARE VALUE CHAIN ASSESSMENT 12).
Equally the availability of largely uncultivated lands makes locating of plants even more cost effective, and for the construction network of roads for transmitting grids would be easily achieved. The closeness of the kingdom to Europe is an added advantage for export of energy as Europe is in need of green energy and attaches at lot of value to the development of CSP.
The Saudi Arabian government must take more practical steps towards maximizing the adoptability of CSP against the highly challenging start up costs. Several factors have to be put together for the actualization of more friendly costs in the development of CSP projects within Saudi Arabia to include local incentives, concession of finances, as well as post-production green electricity export to UK and other European regions.
By and large, financial concession may not be very critical, and generating costs could be remarkably lows. By implication, there will be a corresponding need to enhance the level of investment which would bring about reduction in cost of CSP generation.
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